"I might have stolen the idea [one million subscriber goal] from someone during a job interview - so thank you to that person!". Those were the honest and humble words of John Ridding, CEO of Financial Times during our recent event - News in the Digital Age.
Although, from our experience, not all goals need to be grounded in exact science, there is clear value in goal setting and forecasting - especially when it comes to subscription businesses.
We regularly help our clients with their subscription forecasting – predicting the amount of revenue their business can expect to generate over a defined period of time. We do this by analysing historical and existing subscriber data, trends, and other relevant factors such as expected audience growth and churn rates. Having worked with hundreds of news organisations from around the world, we have access to aggregate benchmarks that few others can benefit from.
That is why we are delighted to announce the release of the simple and free-to-use FT Strategies Subscription Revenue Calculator.
Goal Setting and Forecasting
Effective goal setting and forecasting go hand in hand. Without clear targets, it becomes difficult to track progress, make necessary adjustments, and achieve financial objectives. While forecasting provides valuable insights, these insights are only actionable when connected to well-defined, measurable goals. For example, if a media organisation wants to achieve $5M in annual subscription revenue by Dec 2026, subscription forecasting (via our new tool) helps them to gauge the likelihood of achieving that target, the number of subscribers they will need and the ideal acquisition / churn rate required.
The first section of the tool starts with the goal, as it would be impossible to create a meaningful financial forecast without a set revenue goal and time horizon. The tool then considers key current metrics like the subscriber count, ARPU, churn rate, and number of subscriber acquisitions. Through this, the tool can determine the gap between the business’s current state and its goals, generating a path forward.
The last section connects the dots between current performance and future objectives, it allows users to get a perspective on how best to reach their revenue goal. In the example (as oftentime in reality), it is better if they focus on reducing churn as opposed to increasing acquisitions. This helps publishers to make more informed decisions around where to allocate their resources.
Conclusion: The Power of Forecasting and Goal Setting
Although the FT’s success story shows how goal setting doesn’t always have to be scientific, we believe that tools like the Subscriber Revenue Calculator can help businesses effectively design and execute their strategic plans. If you want to find out more about this tool, please do not hesitate to reach out to us.
About the authors
George Montagu, Head of Insights
George is the Head of Insights at FT Strategies and has contributed to a number of subscription-focused projects for leading European publishers. He previously spent 4 years guiding FT's data strategy and their approach to the future of marketing & advertising. Most recently, he has been working on a leading study to assess the sustainability of news publishers across the globe. George also holds an MBA from IE Business School and is a regular speaker at publishing events.
Jhanein Geronimo, Insights Associate Consultant
Jhanein is an Insights Associate Consultant at FT Strategies that supports the ongoing development of media and subscription expertise. She studied BSBA Corporate Management (Summa Cum Laude) from Assumption College, San Lorenzo.
